Bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa is expected to fall by a further 12% in 2026, after a sharp decline last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. This contraction leaves countries in the region less equipped to absorb a new energy or climate shock, warned Zeine Zeidane, director of the IMF's Africa Department, at the Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
The forecast comes as the IMF expects regional growth of 4.5% this year. Reforms and the adjustment of supply chains have supported activity, but this resilience comes with very different situations across countries, the institution notes in its October regional update.
High prices for oil, copper and gold are cushioning difficulties for some exporters. Conversely, economies less dependent on natural resources are seeing a slowdown and widening external deficits, Zeine Zeidane explained in a statement published by the IMF on Friday, 16 October.
To protect vulnerable households without draining budgets, the Fund recommends targeted schemes, including school feeding. Any temporary price relief should have transparent financing, a cap and a limited duration.
The IMF urges commodity exporters to save most of their windfall revenues, including by repaying costly debt. For countries facing more expensive imports, it recommends continuing budget adjustment while protecting essential services and productive investment.