The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, October 13, raised its real growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.2% for 2026, from 4.1% in its July estimate. The institution then projects growth of 4.3% in 2027, according to its new edition of the World Economic Outlook.
According to the IMF, this improvement rests on greater macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade. However, the institution warns that rising prices of essential goods risk worsening poverty and food insecurity, even as broader indicators suggest a more resilient economy.
The database published with the report forecasts average inflation of 15.6% in 2026, then 14.7% in 2027, after 23.0% in 2025. This expected slowdown does not mean prices will fall. It means price increases would become slower, leaving households facing a durably high level of costs for food, energy and other everyday expenses.
Nigeria would thus grow slightly below the pace of sub-Saharan Africa, whose growth is forecast at 4.5% in 2026 and again in 2027. The IMF stresses that this regional average masks wide differences linked to policy space, exposure to commodities, climate shocks and access to external financing.
For West Africa's largest economy, growth expected in 2026 would accelerate from 4.0% in 2025. Gross domestic product growth would nonetheless not be enough on its own to measure changes in living standards. Inflation still in double digits can erode the real gains for wages and incomes that rise more slowly.
The new estimates are forecasts, not observed outcomes. They may be revised depending on energy and commodity prices, global financial conditions and the implementation of national policies. The document does not constitute an announcement of financing for Nigeria or a timetable for new economic measures.