The Zambezi River Authority has set at 23 billion cubic metres the water usable for power generation at Kariba in 2027, compared with a revised allocation of 36 billion for 2026, a decrease of about 36%. Announced on 14 October, the decision concerns the power stations of Zambia and Zimbabwe, which share the dam.
The Zambian company ZESCO and Zimbabwe Power Company will each receive 11.5 billion cubic metres, compared with 18 billion this year. This reduction relates to their annual water quota and is not a quantified forecast of a fall in electricity output.
The authority justifies this choice by forecasts of below-normal rainfall during the 2026-2027 season, linked to the El Niño phenomenon. The regional forecasts it cites concern in particular southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe at the start of the season, before an expected extension of dry conditions from January to March.
The available reserve is nonetheless better positioned than a year earlier. As of 14 October, the lake stood at 480.65 metres above sea level, with 36.68% of its usable capacity, compared with 477.34 metres and 12.75% on the same date in 2025, according to official records. The level has nonetheless fallen since the beginning of the month, when it stood at 480.92 metres.
For 2026, the envelope of 36 billion cubic metres is maintained. It had been raised from 30 to 36 billion after the substantial inflows of the previous rainy season. As of 14 October, ZESCO still had 3.53 billion cubic metres of its annual allocation, compared with 6.13 billion for Zimbabwe Power Company.