Cape Verde's public finance council forecasts real growth of 5.3% in 2027, against 5.6% in the government's budget scenario, according to its opinion adopted on 14 October. The independent body considers the official forecast plausible, but highlights the risks of a slowdown linked to tourism and external shocks.
It also expects average annual inflation of 2.2%, slightly above the 2% assumed by the Ministry of Finance. The archipelago's reliance on imports of energy and food products exposes households and businesses to higher costs for their purchases and production, the council notes.
The opinion covers the budget guidelines updated in September to prepare for the 2027 fiscal year. The council specifies that it does not incorporate subsequent changes made to the macroeconomic scenario of the draft budget. Its assessment therefore does not amount to approval of the draft as a whole.
Tourism is a major point of concern. A weakening of demand in European countries could weigh on activity, employment and tax revenue, according to the report. The council asks the government to clarify its assumptions on visitor numbers, revenue per visitor and sector investment.
The report accompanying the draft budget submitted to Parliament on 1st October maintains the government's growth and inflation forecasts for 2027. It targets a public deficit of 1% of GDP and debt of 87.5% of GDP, against 90.4% in the September guidelines reviewed by the council.
The ministry also simulated an adverse shock combining growth limited to 3% and inflation of 4.2% in 2027. These figures describe a risk scenario, separate from its central forecasts.