Global growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026, after 2.9% in 2025, according to forecasts presented on 9 October by UNCTAD. The UN agency highlights the weight of the energy shock on import-dependent developing economies, as well as the difficulties in accessing finance and technology.
Trade in goods and services would nonetheless rise by around 4% at constant prices. This volume measure should be distinguished from the increase in trade in value terms, driven by higher energy prices. A higher trade bill therefore does not necessarily mean more goods are being traded.
Developing countries are expected to record growth of 4%, compared with 4.7% the previous year, according to the report. UNCTAD considers that technology restrictions, investment screening and the reshaping of production chains complicate access to the most lucrative activities.
For Africa, the issue goes beyond the sole amount of capital received. In an analysis published on 7 October, the same organisation puts foreign direct investment into the continent at around $70 billion in 2025, compared with $94 billion in 2024, a year marked by a few large-scale deals.
Despite this decline, the 2025 result remains the third highest since 1990, according to UNCTAD. Investment remains concentrated in a limited number of countries and sectors, notably energy, minerals and infrastructure, which limits its spread across all economies.
The value of greenfield projects announced in Africa fell by nearly a third, while their number rose. This suggests smaller projects, in a context where investors are being more selective about their commitments.