IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday 12 October in Bangkok that investment in artificial intelligence was keeping global growth around 3%, while potentially transforming, degrading or eliminating up to 40% of jobs in the long term.
Speaking to participants at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, she described an investment shock that supports demand despite higher energy costs. According to her estimates, the effect could add between half a point and one point of growth in advanced economies of Asia, and between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage point in emerging economies of the region.
The figure of 3% corresponds to the global forecast published by the IMF in July for 2026. Monday's statements therefore do not constitute a new formal projection. The IMF has since published its update on October 13, forecasting global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
The social risk is considerable. The work cited by Kristalina Georgieva estimates that about 40% of global jobs could be enhanced, downgraded or eliminated by AI, a proportion that could reach 60% in advanced economies. Entry-level positions and repetitive tasks are among the most exposed, while the shift toward more capital-intensive production also raises the question of the tax base.
For sub-Saharan Africa, however, the World Bank identifies a different trajectory. Its economic report published on 6 October estimates that the short-term effect should complement workers more than replace them, and emphasizes affordable tools for agriculture, health, education, finance and administration.
This possibility remains conditional on investment in electricity, connectivity, skills, data and computing capacity. The World Bank stresses that African adoption remains concentrated in a few economies, notably Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, which risks widening gaps if infrastructure and training do not advance at the same pace.