Sub-Saharan Africa: World Bank forecasts 4.3% growth in 2026

The World Bank forecasts growth of 4.3% for sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, against 4.1% in 2025. In its statement of 6 October, it raises its April projection by 0.3 percentage point. This revision concerns a forecast for the current year, not a definitively measured annual outcome.

More dynamic activity, with narrow fiscal margins

The institution also expects median inflation of 5.5% in 2026, after 3.7% in 2025. It puts public debt at around 57% of GDP and stresses that debt service limits spending on health, education and infrastructure. It also considers that the pace of growth remains insufficient to fully meet employment needs and substantially reduce extreme poverty.

Stronger activity therefore does not guarantee an identical improvement for every household. GDP indicates overall output; effects on living standards also depend on population growth, income distribution, employment and purchasing power. These indicators need to be read together to assess the benefits of the recovery.

A slowdown forecast in the WAEMU

The regional outlook detailed by the World Bank adds a nuance for West Africa. The West and Central Africa aggregate is expected to grow 4.5% in 2026, a rate unchanged from 2025. In the WAEMU, growth is expected to slow from 6.3% to 5.6%, then stand at around 5.7% on average in 2027-2028.

The World Bank nonetheless describes sustained activity in the Union, driven by investment, infrastructure and the expansion of services. The announced slowdown thus remains consistent with growth above the West and Central Africa average.

These aggregates cover different areas. The sub-Saharan figure cannot be applied directly to a WAEMU country, any more than a median inflation rate represents each consumer's basket. For businesses, regional projections provide a framework for reading the outlook; investment decisions also require national and sector data.

Upcoming publications will show whether these trajectories are confirmed. The forecasts remain exposed to commodity prices, financing conditions and shocks affecting activity.