The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, 13 October, in Bangkok that an artificial intelligence-related correction, a sharp rise in bond yields or a major cyberattack could trigger systemic strains despite the markets' current resilience.
Its Global Financial Stability Report notes that strong earnings, growth and technology investment have supported risk appetite. The IMF nevertheless judges that this optimism could reverse if spending on artificial intelligence fails to deliver the expected gains.
Large technology companies that are building the main artificial intelligence infrastructure now account for 10% of global issuance of high-quality corporate bonds, up from less than 1% in 2024. A slowdown in investment could therefore trigger forced sales and spread volatility to the rest of the credit market.
The second risk comes from public finances. High debt, persistent deficits and massive bond issuance coincide with central banks shrinking their balance sheets. For African economies and other emerging markets, a global rise in yields can make public refinancing more expensive and reduce resources available to businesses.
The IMF also highlights the shortage of resources devoted to cybersecurity in several emerging economies and their reliance on a small number of technology providers. More than 70% of vulnerabilities exploited in 2026 were exploited before vendors could apply a patch, roughly 20 percentage points more than a year earlier.
The institution's stress tests show the banking system would remain broadly sound in a scenario combining a technology shock, bond market tensions and higher energy prices. Banks with weak capital buffers would nonetheless account for 22% of global banking assets, compared with 18% in the 2025 test, while pension funds, insurers, hedge funds and private credit players could amplify losses.
The IMF calls on authorities to curb excessive borrowing, strengthen oversight of technology providers and prepare financial institutions to absorb shocks. It also urges governments to put debt on a sustainable trajectory in order to preserve room for manoeuvre.