The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% on Tuesday, 13 October, in Bangkok, up from 3.0% in July, while warning that the war in the Middle East, debt and a possible correction linked to artificial intelligence were clouding the outlook.
The projection for 2027 remains at 3.4%, while global activity had grown by 3.5% in 2025. According to the IMF, strong investment in technology offsets part of the energy shock, without erasing the losses suffered by energy-importing economies and low-income countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow 4.5% in 2026 and at the same pace in 2027. This year's forecast is 0.2 percentage point higher than in July. The IMF, however, expects only 1.0% growth for South Africa in 2026, before 1.3% in 2027, illustrating the wide disparities behind the regional average.
Global inflation is estimated at 4.7% this year and at 4.1% next year. Rising energy and food prices weigh more heavily on households in countries where these items absorb a large share of income, while higher bond yields raise the cost of public refinancing.
Growth is also becoming more concentrated. According to estimates presented with the report, 32 countries would now account for 95% of global expansion. Economies integrated into artificial intelligence value chains or benefiting from favourable terms of trade are growing faster than those combining costly energy imports, high debt and a decline in external aid.
The IMF recommends rebuilding fiscal room and reserving aid against rising prices for temporary, targeted schemes. It also asks central banks to tailor their policy to the specific effects on each economy, and not to treat productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence as a given.