Fitch Ratings raised its sovereign rating outlook for Nigeria from stable to positive on Friday, 9 October 2026, while affirming the rating at B. The agency bases its assessment on the strengthening of foreign exchange reserves and the continuation of monetary reforms, while the cost of debt remains a constraint on public finances.
The positive outlook opens the possibility of a further upgrade should the improvements continue. For now, the rating remains in the speculative category. In its report on the decision, published on 12 October, the Nigerian daily Punch highlights in particular the fiscal risks and the difficulties in implementing reforms.
Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at 54.9 billion dollars as of 25 September, compared with 32 billion in mid-April 2024, according to Fitch figures cited by BusinessDay. The accumulation of foreign currency is linked to export earnings, remittances, portfolio investment and a larger share of transactions passing through official channels.
This external improvement comes alongside a disinflation that is still incomplete. The agency expects average inflation of 15.4% in 2026, a level that continues to weigh on households and businesses. It also forecasts real growth of 4.3% this year, after 4% in 2025, driven mainly by non-oil activities.
On the fiscal side, weak revenues still limit the capacity to absorb debt service. According to Fitch projections reported by Proshare, interest payments alone are expected to average 27% of general government revenues over the 2026-2028 period, compared with a median of 14% for comparable countries.