Kenya's ordinary revenue reached 655.8 billion shillings in the three months to September 2026, up 14.4% year on year, but remained 58.2 billion below the National Treasury's target. The shortfall opens the 2026-2027 fiscal year under increased pressure on the financing of public spending.
The increase is marked compared with the 573.5 billion shillings collected over the same period in 2025, when ordinary revenue had fallen 2.9%. It nonetheless fails to close the gap to the 714 billion shilling target shown in Treasury data.
Total revenue, after taking into account the own-source revenue of ministries and public agencies, remained 40.4 billion shillings below target. These resources, known as appropriations in aid, exceeded their target by 17.8 billion and thus offset part of the shortfall in ordinary revenue.
Income tax accounted for the main shortfall, with 297.9 billion shillings collected against 323.3 billion expected, a gap of 25.4 billion. Excise duties missed their target by 16.3 billion. Among the major tax categories, import duties were the only ones to exceed their target.
In September alone, tax revenue came to 258.31 billion shillings, up 14.85% year on year. Over the same monthly period, debt service reached 109.66 billion, while the government raised 101.72 billion on the domestic market and 54.05 billion in external loans and grants.
The pressure does not come only from revenue. Spending exceeded its path by 116.9 billion shillings in the first quarter, including 59.3 billion on recurrent spending and 34.7 billion on development. The budget deficit, including grants, reached 329.1 billion shillings, or 1.6% of gross domestic product, against a target of 174.8 billion and 0.8% of GDP.
The government targets about 2 860 billion shillings in tax revenue for the full fiscal year. The Treasury also plans to bring the annual deficit down to 5.5% of GDP, from 6.8% in 2025-2026, a goal that will depend on narrowing the collection gap or on adjusting spending and financing.