The High Commission for Planning (HCP) of Morocco estimates economic growth at 4.1% in the third quarter of 2026, against 5.4% forecast in July, in its economic outlook note published Wednesday, 14 October. Activity would have been slowed by rising energy input costs and difficulties in several industrial sectors.
This new estimate lowers the scenario presented on 16 July for the same quarter by 1.3 percentage point. The HCP nevertheless forecasts an acceleration to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, assuming relatively stable energy prices and no new major shocks.
For the quarter ending in September, agriculture would have grown 19.9% year on year and services 3.9%, according to the institute. Secondary activities would, conversely, have declined 1.9%, after a contraction of 3.9% in the second quarter.
Agri-food, automotive and electrical equipment manufacturing would have held up better than textiles, chemicals or electronics. Companies would have continued to adjust their investment in the face of the rising cost of imported equipment and construction materials, while large infrastructure projects would have supported demand.
The expected year-end recovery rests in particular on a rebound in extractive industries after their maintenance work. The HCP also anticipates a 4.3% increase in household consumption and a 6.8% rise in investment in the fourth quarter, year on year.
In the second quarter, growth had come in at 4%. The economy's financing requirement had reached 22 billion dirhams, against 10.3 billion a year earlier, amid a heavier energy bill and a widening public deficit.